Author: Mike McLaughlin

Content as Journalism, not Marketing

Asset managers typically have experienced writers on staff. Yet most of our clients struggle to consistently produce as much compelling content as they’d like.

In most cases the challenge is not a lack of ideas but difficulty in execution. We hear things like:

  • There are tons of opinions floating around this place. We just can’t harness them all.
  • We have great ideas, but all of those ideas ultimately turn into 10-page PDFs.
  • Our process for producing a piece of content simply takes too long.

When I look at these issues, I think about newspapers, magazines, and blogs. These entities live (and die) by their ability to consistently create compelling content, and succeed only by overcoming the problems voiced above.

That leads me to ask: what if investment firms treated content-generation as journalism instead of marketing?

Consider that there are important differences in the ways journalists produce content when compared to marketers. There are editorial structures, processes, and a pacing associated with journalism that simply don’t exist within asset management marketing teams, even if some of the same skill sets do.

Why not incorporate these advantages? Have 1-2 people serve as “staff writers”, and make it their full-time jobs to create a constant stream of content. These writers could:

  • Attend all important firm events (conferences, conference calls, Webcasts, sales meetings)
  • Interview all portfolio managers on a quarterly basis
  • Consume industry press and competitors’ content

Then let the source material guide the output – in some cases short blog posts, in others long-form papers. A journalistic mentality means you let the idea and process dictate the nature of the output. Even with a dose of attrition (pieces that ultimately fail), I think content production would improve for most firms.

Why Day-to-Day Financial News is Useless

Rewind to yesterday. If I asked – “Do you know who Juergen Stark is?” – what would your answer have been?

Mine would have been “no”. Same for the two financial advisors I spoke to this morning. But apparently we all should have known because Mr. Stark is single-handedly capsizing the markets today.

Yes, I write that with thick sarcasm. As much as I avoid CNBC and the nonstop nonsense explanations around the day-to-day moves of the markets, sometimes my frustration gets the best of me.

David Swensen and the Reality of Past Performance

If you read our blog, by now you’ve probably also read David Swensen’s op-ed from the Saturday New York Times. There’s a lot in there worthy of discussion, but one paragraph in particular got a strong reaction from me:

Mutual fund companies, retail brokers and financial advisers aggressively market funds awarded four stars and five stars by Morningstar … But the rating system merely identifies funds that performed well in the past; it provides no help in finding future winners. Nevertheless, investors respond to industry come-ons and load up on the most “stellar” offerings.

Let’s all say it together: past performance is not predictive of future results. True in investing? Yes. In life? No.

The reason David Swensen gets to write an op-ed for the New York Times and lead the Yale endowment is because of what he’s done in the past. Looking at the track record of anything is the most intuitive evaluation barometer we have. Ignoring it is neither natural nor logical.

This doesn’t mean the issue Swensen raises – investors unsuccessfully chasing performance – isn’t real. I just think he’s angrily, unfairly, and incorrectly casting blanket blame on mutual fund marketers and financial advisors, who generally believe in what they’re doing and try to do right by their customers and themselves.

The real enemy here for Swensen is human nature. It’s in our nature to be emotional and overconfident, and compensating for these realities will require a lot more than broad-stroke, ham-handed criticisms of an entire industry.

Marketing Volatility – Clarify What You Mean

A headline from the closing bell today brings out another tactical but important issue investment firms will face in talking about volatility.

The headline prominently cites the VIX (Volatility Index), which has gotten an increasing amount of mainstream attention over the last few years as the designated “fear gauge”. This makes incorporating volatility into marketing tricky, because in today’s environment volatility has multiple meanings.

There are traditional, backward-looking, vehicle-specific measures like standard/downside deviation. And there are forward-looking, blended measures like the VIX. Any investment manager wanting to incorporate volatility into its messaging may have to start by clarifying exactly what they’re talking about.

Marketing Volatility – A Tendency to Oversimplify

Take a look at the following chart:

It’s taken from a recent MainStay Investments piece on volatility. MainStay uses this chart and two others to point out why volatility (standard deviation) matters: despite a significantly higher average annual return (12.6% vs. 7.3%), Investment A underperforms the more-stable Investment B in terms of 5-year total return to the tune of about 9%.

The piece is solid overall. It’s both concise (1 page) and visual (graphics communicate the message). However, I think it also illustrates one of the pitfalls in talking about volatility: oversimplification.

In MainStay’s example, the more volatile product delivers lesser performance. Pointing out the potential pitfalls of looking at average annual returns is ok, but I don’t think a thoughtful investor/advisor is truly challenged by the conclusion here. They can get lower volatility and a better return with the same product. It’s a slam dunk.

But a simple, minor shift in the data creates a much different conversation. For example, what if the Year 3 return for Investment A was -53% (instead of -58%)? In this case, Investment A delivers excess total return of about 4% over the 5-year period, but with twice the volatility. Now we have an interesting discussion. Should people forgo the extra return for a smoother ride?

In these more complicated scenarios is where the illuminating conversations about volatility can be had. As firms continue to incorporate volatility into marketing messages, especially with alternatives, I suspect that the most successful ones will be those that most deeply explore the details of how volatility really matters.

More on volatility later this week…