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Best Blogs of the Week #240

Only a single post this week worth mentioning and more in format than content. American Century revisited macroeconomic themes in a straightforward manner. Revisiting themes or an outlook is done too irregularly. Yet, I think it’s a valuable way to tie thoughts together for an advisor seeking to insights over a medium or long-term.

American CenturyFour Key Themes Revisited – This recalls our discussion of several issues ago about four key economic developments likely to influence large-cap growth stocks in the coming years. Here we revisit these themes in light of events so far in 2016, though we emphasize that our investment philosophy and security selection process remain unchanged.

which way?

Best Blogs of the Week #239

Only one pure best post this week and it touches on the recent fixed income news from Germany.

M & GWhy do people buy negative yielding bonds? – The possibility of selling the asset to someone else at a higher price (a greater fool) is predicated on hoping that having accepted a guaranteed loss of over 50 cents over the course of 10 years, someone else will be willing to accept an even greater guaranteed loss over a shorter time period at some stage in the next 10 years.

M & G Blog Post

There have numerous posts related to post-BREXIT. Without summarizing all of them, here are the two I found compelling.

which way?

Two Ads, Portfolio Construction, and a Strategic Dilemma for Asset Managers

A few years ago we worked with a large asset management firm to conduct a strategic review of the robo-advisor market. At the time our client simply wanted to learn more about the space and consider the implications, both good and bad, of these potentially-ascendant companies.

One topic we addressed during the work was portfolio construction. Specifically, the fact that for the most part asset managers held a mostly undefined role in it for advisors and investors.

While we’ve had this conversation many times since, it popped directly into my mind upon encountering two new “Uncommon Presentation” ads from Invesco. Each triggered very different reactions for me. First up, “It’s time to bench the benchmarks”:

This ad relays exactly the type of message I’d expect to see from Invesco or any firm with significant actively-managed offerings. It relays the need to build portfolios with more than just straightforward index (or low active share) strategies. The implication is for investors who buy into that concept to look at Invesco as someone who can offer solutions to plug into their portfolios. Makes perfect sense.

Next up, “Goodbye 60/40. Hello 50/30/20.”:

This ad leaves me less clear. The message is direct – investors need to shift from a traditional portfolio allocation to one that utilizes more alts – but the role Invesco can and will play is not. If the ad established Invesco as a leading alternatives provider, a firm that can help investors with the 20% allocation, that would fit. However, the ad is framed with and ultimately focused on overall portfolio construction (the 50/30/20).

This ties back to the issue we raised in the robo project: what role, exactly, does an intermediary-focused (i.e., non-direct) asset manager play in helping advisors and investors construct portfolios? At this moment, for the most part, I’d argue the answer is “not much”.

Of course maybe the ad is simply the jumping-off point for more discussion, which is fine. But I do think it illustrates two critical questions for most traditional, active, retail-centric asset managers to address:

  1. Is it feasible for us to be viewed as a key resource in portfolio construction or are we too far down the road of ceding that ground to our distributors, direct firms, and new entrants like robo-advisors?
  2. If it is feasible, what is our strategy?

The rash of robo-advisor acquisitions supports that idea that asset managers believe that becoming a more prominent resource for portfolio construction is feasible and necessary. But the messaging around these acquisitions has been carefully curated to be non-threatening to the status quo (i.e., “we’re doing this to help, not challenge, advisors”). And I don’t know that 20 different asset managers offering 20 nuanced robo platforms is an outcome, even in the short-term, that any single firm should view as favorable.

So when it comes to portfolio construction and the role asset managers wish to and can play in it, “what is our strategy?” is a more pressing question than ever.

Best Blogs of the Week #238

We have a return to semi-normalcy in the industry’s blogs. While there’s still considerable discussion on Britain, the pound and Euro-implications; many posts returned to regular programming.

Franklin Templeton – What an (Economic) Drag It Is Getting Old – The world is getting older (much older in some geographies), and to us this is without question becoming a meaningful drag on economic growth—one that will likely persist into the future.

InvescoHow much is a stock worth? There’s more to valuation than simple P/E ratios – First, low yields are driving investment decisions and creating flows into fixed income securities and fixed income substitutes – namely, dividend-paying stocks like utilities.

Franklin Templeton (Britain Included)

Best Blogs of the Week (SPECIAL – BREXIT III – FINAL EDITION)

This will be the final issue related to Brexit. Less than one week later, the US equity markets (as measured by the S&P 500) returned to pre-Brexit levels. In fact the S&P 500 index is nearly at its 52-week high (off by 42 points, or 1%). In this issue, we’ll return to our standard format of highlight the best (Brexit) blog posts and not inventorying posts.

BlackRockWhere to find opportunities in a post-Brexit world – The big takeaway for those seeking to buy into market weakness: Be wary of buying notionally cheap assets that face challenges…

Franklin TempletonBrexit: “I Have Confidence in Confidence Alone” – In my view,  a real risk of political impasse and a lack of direction will be a further element of negative confidence.

Franklin TempletonBrexit: Serious Consequences, but “Not the End of the World” –  I expect financials and domestically oriented cyclical stocks to be the hardest-hit areas of the equity market within the United Kingdom and the EU

InvescoHas the Brexit sell-off created an entry point? – These attributes give the Invesco International Companies Fund team a high degree of confidence in our belief that the UK will enjoy long-term economic success outside of the European Union.

Three quick learnings from following the industry’s BREXIT coverage.

  1. Many firms were caught flat-footed expecting a “Remain” vote and readying nothing substantive by the 23rd June. This reflected very poorly on these firms as their institutional and intermediary clients looked for a point of view and found nothing (or something highly superficial).
  2. Creating a cross-functional internal team (Sales, Marketing, PR) to create an execution plan for something that may not occur is simply not in the DNA for most asset managers. Teams are already resource-constrained and thus shifting 100 team hours from business as usual to a Brexit planning effort is a tough decision to make.
  3. The best Brexit blog posts provide a clear point of view. Messages such as “we’ll not panic” or “we encourage our advisors to plan for risk related to geo-political issues” were few and far between. Instead there was too much news regurgitation.

Brexit BlackRock