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Impact of Confirmation Bias

Over the last month or so, I’ve been thinking a lot about confirmation bias.  I’m not sure exactly why, it may be from following the debt crisis too closely.

I’m not thinking about bias in a statistical sense.  More in how we attain, review, digest, & seek information.  A prototypical example of this seems to be:

Person believes that reducing government is a good idea.  He regularly seeks out the Wall Street Journal.  He enjoys reading the columnists.  Those columnists often cite the Cato Institute.  Over time, he develops a strong, positive opinion of the Cato Institute.  Next time he needs/wants economic data, he visits the Cato Web site.

Understanding all of us have a confirmation bias may lead to better marketing and selling.  If a wholesaler goes into a meeting (or begins a telephone call) with questions to understand the advisor’s decision-making process, then he may glean a bit into their confirmation bias.

Imagine an introductory question like, “Historically, how have you decided to add a new fund into your most commonly used fund lineup?”  If the advisor answers with performance and attribution analysis preferred from select third-party providers, then the sales team can lead with a detailed performance review, provided by that third-party provider (or something similar).  If the advisor answers with process and portfolio manager interest, than leading with investment decision-making information and PM team tenure is a better lead.

Understanding confirmation bias is just one tool to improving sales and account management.

Sharing information slowly

Share information in digestible bites.  It sounds simple enough.  Yet, how many of us – given the opportunity – will launch into our firm’s history, products, representative work, and other information.  It’s an old problem that continues to  occur – especially for wholesalers meeting prospects.

This summer we helped an established firm launch a new business line.  They have the right ingredients: a savvy, experienced leader, current clients to call on, and an achievable plan / goal for year one.

As we worked together on the marketing strategy and material, I remembered the value of patience – sharing small amounts of information over time.   And as the sales team has started pitching, they’ve realized that using a 3 or 4 short meeting sales process is more effective than attempting to make a sale in an initial 90 minutes meeting.  Instead of looking for the prime lunch spot, the sales team is looking for 15-20 minutes at the end of the day, towards the beginning of the week.  Not only are prospective clients more likely to accept, the sales team can assess the potential relationship from that first encounter.  Subsequent meetings can assuage any concerns about the product, firm, or investment process.  All that leads to a potential closing opportunity.  In this process, that opportunity will feel very natural, as the prospect has had time to digest information slowly, ask questions, consider with colleagues, and speak to references.

There are numerous sales processes, sales funnels, and even sales pyramids to use.  They all cover the steps and actions; but not the actual interactions.   For the interactions, perhaps consider the 15-minute, 1 major point meeting.  That can potentially be memorable.

Best Blogs of the Week

Last week’s best blogs include a double-double (delicious, right?) from Russell and a solid case for gold stocks courtesy of Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.

  1. Russell – I couldn’t agree more with the author’s point that DC menu’s need a significant overhaul.  Too many choices negatively impact too many plan participants.
  2. Russell – The blog continues to share quality analogies that relate statistics to investment selection.  It may be simplistic for many, yet probably very appealing to more.
  3. Wells Fargo – This post will be extremely beneficial for any advisor discussing different (from bullion) gold-investing options.
Double-Double photo is courtesy Scott Beale.

Why Day-to-Day Financial News is Useless

Rewind to yesterday. If I asked – “Do you know who Juergen Stark is?” – what would your answer have been?

Mine would have been “no”. Same for the two financial advisors I spoke to this morning. But apparently we all should have known because Mr. Stark is single-handedly capsizing the markets today.

Yes, I write that with thick sarcasm. As much as I avoid CNBC and the nonstop nonsense explanations around the day-to-day moves of the markets, sometimes my frustration gets the best of me.

Best Blogs of the Week

We hope everyone had a tremendous long weekend and is settling in for a busy autumn.  This week’s best blogs have no  connected theme, other than being effective and entertaining.

  1. American Century – This post makes a compelling case to add quant strategies into an asset allocation program; probably very helpful for an advisor already trying to make that case.
  2. Russell – This post includes a fantastic and simple graphic along with a few good points on how to engage clients.
  3. BlackRock – The author provides 3 reasons to consider last week’s manufacturing data as crucial to an advisor that has to prognosticate.